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Copa Holdings (CPA) Down 25.3% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Copa Holdings (CPA - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 25.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Copa Holdings due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Copa Holdings, S.A. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Copa Holdings Lags on Q4 Earnings
Copa Holdings reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $4.18, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.44 but improved 4.7% year over year. Revenues of $962.9 million missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $967.6 million but inched up 9.7% year over year, due to an 12.9% increase in onboard passengers.
Passenger revenues (which contributed 94.8% to the top line) grew 9.4% year over year to $913.62 million. The upside was owing to 10.1% increase in revenue passenger miles (RPMs), partially offset by a 0.6% decrease in passenger yield.
Cargo and mail revenues of $32.03 million grew 10.6% year over year, owing to higher cargo volumes resulting from the addition of a second freighter operation. Other operating revenues of $17.22 million improved 15.7% year over year, owing to increase in ConnectMiles revenues from non-air partners.
CPA’s Other Financial Details
On a consolidated basis, Copa Holdings’ traffic (measured in revenue passenger miles) grew 10.1% and capacity (measured in available seat miles) increased 9.9% from the year-ago quarter. Since traffic growth outpaced capacity expansion, the load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) increased 0.2 percentage points to 86.4% in the reported quarter.
Passenger revenue per available seat mile dipped 0.4% year over year to 10.7 cents. Revenue per available seat mile (RASM) fell 0.3% year over year to 11.3 cents. Cost per available seat mile grew 1.6% year over year. Excluding fuel, the metric rose 0.7% year over year. The average fuel price per gallon increased 5% year over year to $2.50.
Operating expenses increased 11.6% year over year to $753.3 million in the fourth quarter, owing to capacity growth, higher maintenance-related costs, and an increase in the average price of jet fuel. Expenses on wages, salaries, benefits and other employee expenses rose 11.6% year over year. Sales and distribution costs increased 10% year over year. Passenger servicing costs grew 6.9% from the year-ago quarter. Airport facilities and handling charges grew 6.7% year over year. Expenses of fuel rose 13.7% year over year.
Copa Holdings exited the fourth quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $382.55 million compared with $248.82 million at the prior-quarter end.
During the fourth quarter of 2025, CPA took delivery of four Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft and ended the year with a total fleet of 125 aircraft. In January 2026, CPA took delivery of one additional Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft, bringing its total fleet to 126 aircraft.
CPA’s Outlook
For 2026, CPA’s management expects consolidated capacity to be up 11-13% year over year, and the operating margin is expected to be in the range of 22-24%. The fuel cost is expected to be $2.50 per gallon. RASM is still expected to be 11.2 cents. The load factor for the current year is expected to be 87%. Non-fuel unit costs are anticipated to be 5.7 cents. Copa Holdings expects to end 2026 with 133 aircraft.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review have trended upward during the past month.
VGM Scores
Currently, Copa Holdings has a nice Growth Score of B, a score with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It comes with little surprise Copa Holdings has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.
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Copa Holdings (CPA) Down 25.3% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Copa Holdings (CPA - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 25.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Copa Holdings due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Copa Holdings, S.A. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Copa Holdings Lags on Q4 Earnings
Copa Holdings reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $4.18, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.44 but improved 4.7% year over year. Revenues of $962.9 million missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $967.6 million but inched up 9.7% year over year, due to an 12.9% increase in onboard passengers.
Passenger revenues (which contributed 94.8% to the top line) grew 9.4% year over year to $913.62 million. The upside was owing to 10.1% increase in revenue passenger miles (RPMs), partially offset by a 0.6% decrease in passenger yield.
Cargo and mail revenues of $32.03 million grew 10.6% year over year, owing to higher cargo volumes resulting from the addition of a second freighter operation. Other operating revenues of $17.22 million improved 15.7% year over year, owing to increase in ConnectMiles revenues from non-air partners.
CPA’s Other Financial Details
On a consolidated basis, Copa Holdings’ traffic (measured in revenue passenger miles) grew 10.1% and capacity (measured in available seat miles) increased 9.9% from the year-ago quarter. Since traffic growth outpaced capacity expansion, the load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) increased 0.2 percentage points to 86.4% in the reported quarter.
Passenger revenue per available seat mile dipped 0.4% year over year to 10.7 cents. Revenue per available seat mile (RASM) fell 0.3% year over year to 11.3 cents. Cost per available seat mile grew 1.6% year over year. Excluding fuel, the metric rose 0.7% year over year. The average fuel price per gallon increased 5% year over year to $2.50.
Operating expenses increased 11.6% year over year to $753.3 million in the fourth quarter, owing to capacity growth, higher maintenance-related costs, and an increase in the average price of jet fuel. Expenses on wages, salaries, benefits and other employee expenses rose 11.6% year over year. Sales and distribution costs increased 10% year over year. Passenger servicing costs grew 6.9% from the year-ago quarter. Airport facilities and handling charges grew 6.7% year over year. Expenses of fuel rose 13.7% year over year.
Copa Holdings exited the fourth quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $382.55 million compared with $248.82 million at the prior-quarter end.
During the fourth quarter of 2025, CPA took delivery of four Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft and ended the year with a total fleet of 125 aircraft. In January 2026, CPA took delivery of one additional Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft, bringing its total fleet to 126 aircraft.
CPA’s Outlook
For 2026, CPA’s management expects consolidated capacity to be up 11-13% year over year, and the operating margin is expected to be in the range of 22-24%. The fuel cost is expected to be $2.50 per gallon. RASM is still expected to be 11.2 cents. The load factor for the current year is expected to be 87%. Non-fuel unit costs are anticipated to be 5.7 cents. Copa Holdings expects to end 2026 with 133 aircraft.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review have trended upward during the past month.
VGM Scores
Currently, Copa Holdings has a nice Growth Score of B, a score with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It comes with little surprise Copa Holdings has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.